What if you had to pack up and leave your home in the next few years—maybe sooner—because it had become unlivable? Not just your house itself, but the entire region surrounding it?
A significant number of Americans, many of them affluent people who planned their living situations and their futures very carefully, are at risk of seeing their homes underwater. Not as in an underwater mortgage—although that’s a real risk as well—but under actual water.
What if you had to pack up and leave your home in the next few years—maybe sooner—because it had become unlivable? Not just your house itself, but the entire region surrounding it? A significant number of Americans, many of them affluent people who planned their living situations and their futures very carefully, are at risk of seeing their homes underwater. Not as in an underwater mortgage—although that’s a real risk as well—but under actual water. [text_ad] Forester’s publisher recently drew my attention to this article titled “The Siege of Miami.” Although the gist of it might not be news to those who are following predictions of sea level rise and the effects on coastal properties, it contains some grim first-hand accounts of what’s happening on the ground—or what’s left of the ground—in parts of Florida. The city of Miami Beach, located on an island a few miles off Florida’s coast, is set to be one of the first US casualties of the phenomenon. As the article notes, the city has spent about a hundred million dollars to deal with its flooding problems and will probably need to spend many times that amount before it’s through. A geologist quoted in the article predicts that insurers will abandon the city and banks will be reluctant to write mortgages for properties there. Just as people fled the Midwest during the Dust Bowl, he says, owners of multimillion-dollar homes may have to pull up stakes. The article’s author describes seeing, on a recent visit, water creeping up to the edges of mansions, the saltwater killing the landscaping and flooding luxury cars up to their chassis. Predictions for sea level rise by the end of this century range from more than 3 feet (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to 5 feet (the US Army Corps of Engineers) to 6.5 feet (NOAA) or more. Planning is difficult under such circumstances, but as a coastal engineer from the Army Corps of Engineers notes in this Erosion Control article, “We’re trying to move people away from getting hung up on the prediction of what the exact sea level change might be. That blurs what we need to be thinking about, which is really an assessment of potential risk.” Many coastal cities in the US and elsewhere are planning for how to deal with more water; in Miami Beach efforts include huge underground pumps to remove water from flooded streets and convey it to Biscayne Bay. Six pumps are completed and 54 additional ones are planned, but some say no amount of pumping will finally be enough. Build levees, says a modeler for the South Florida Water Management District, and the water will simply come up from underground via the rising water table, or as he succinctly puts it, “The water comes from six sides in Florida.” The city’s mayor counters, “We can’t let investor confidence, resident confidence, confidence in our economy start to fall away.” He believes a technological solution, though perhaps not obvious at the moment, will be found: “If, thirty or forty years ago, I’d told you that you were going to be able to communicate with your friends around the world by looking at your watch…you would think I was out of my mind.” The city engineer echoes that thought: “If we can put a man on the moon, then we can figure out a way to keep Miami Beach dry.” It’s a question not just for Florida, but for cities around the globe, and most especially for island countries like the Maldives. In the last issue of Erosion Control I wrote about the United Kingdom’s National Trust and its plans for dealing with coastal erosion and flooding. In addition to adapting some buildings and coastal areas to be more resistant to flooding, the Trust is also adopting a strategy of “rolling back,” or relocating buildings, infrastructure, and habitat. I asked then for comments on achieving the right balance—coastal defense vs. restricting coastal development or actually moving—and I’ll ask again here. If you’re in a coastal region, what strategies are already in place, and what do you think are the logical next steps?
Forester’s publisher recently drew my attention to this article titled “The Siege of Miami.” Although the gist of it might not be news to those who are following predictions of sea level rise and the effects on coastal properties, it contains some grim first-hand accounts of what’s happening on the ground—or what’s left of the ground—in parts of Florida.
The city of Miami Beach, located on an island a few miles off Florida’s coast, is set to be one of the first US casualties of the phenomenon. As the article notes, the city has spent about a hundred million dollars to deal with its flooding problems and will probably need to spend many times that amount before it’s through. A geologist quoted in the article predicts that insurers will abandon the city and banks will be reluctant to write mortgages for properties there. Just as people fled the Midwest during the Dust Bowl, he says, owners of multimillion-dollar homes may have to pull up stakes. The article’s author describes seeing, on a recent visit, water creeping up to the edges of mansions, the saltwater killing the landscaping and flooding luxury cars up to their chassis.
Predictions for sea level rise by the end of this century range from more than 3 feet (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to 5 feet (the US Army Corps of Engineers) to 6.5 feet (NOAA) or more. Planning is difficult under such circumstances, but as a coastal engineer from the Army Corps of Engineers notes in this Erosion Control article, “We’re trying to move people away from getting hung up on the prediction of what the exact sea level change might be. That blurs what we need to be thinking about, which is really an assessment of potential risk.”
Many coastal cities in the US and elsewhere are planning for how to deal with more water; in Miami Beach efforts include huge underground pumps to remove water from flooded streets and convey it to Biscayne Bay. Six pumps are completed and 54 additional ones are planned, but some say no amount of pumping will finally be enough. Build levees, says a modeler for the South Florida Water Management District, and the water will simply come up from underground via the rising water table, or as he succinctly puts it, “The water comes from six sides in Florida.” The city’s mayor counters, “We can’t let investor confidence, resident confidence, confidence in our economy start to fall away.” He believes a technological solution, though perhaps not obvious at the moment, will be found: “If, thirty or forty years ago, I’d told you that you were going to be able to communicate with your friends around the world by looking at your watch…you would think I was out of my mind.” The city engineer echoes that thought: “If we can put a man on the moon, then we can figure out a way to keep Miami Beach dry.”
It’s a question not just for Florida, but for cities around the globe, and most especially for island countries like the Maldives. In the last issue of Erosion Control I wrote about the United Kingdom’s National Trust and its plans for dealing with coastal erosion and flooding. In addition to adapting some buildings and coastal areas to be more resistant to flooding, the Trust is also adopting a strategy of “rolling back,” or relocating buildings, infrastructure, and habitat. I asked then for comments on achieving the right balance—coastal defense vs. restricting coastal development or actually moving—and I’ll ask again here. If you’re in a coastal region, what strategies are already in place, and what do you think are the logical next steps?Janice Kaspersen
Janice Kaspersen is the former editor of Erosion Control and Stormwater magazines.
