NPR Studies Storm Surge Impacts Based on National Hurricane Center Data
NPR conducted an analysis based on modeling from the National Hurricane Center for New York City, Washington, D.C., and Miami-Dade County.
The analysis found "future sea rise alone could expose about 720,000 more people to flooding in the decades to come," reported NPR.
The analysis used three landmark hurricanes, Sandy, Isabel, and Irma, as benchmarks. The purpose of the analysis was to determine if and how storm surge could grow.
In all three regions, flooding from storm surge along the coast travels miles inland and grows deeper. According to the analysis, by 2080, sea rise could reach more than three feet, so flooding would impact even more infrastructure.
"Every bit of sea level that we add to this just makes this kind of scenario worse," said Brian Haus, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science who studies the damages associated with storm surge, reported NPR. "Each time a wave hits, it's just a big spike. That kind of repetitive shock loading is the kind of thing that causes a lot of structural failure."
The National Hurricane Center began testing surge forecasts in 2014 and issued the first official forecasts in 2017, which was the year of Hurricane Irma, which triggered the largest evacuation in Florida's history.
"Storm surge was killing people more than any other hazard. So they went on this campaign to figure out how can we do something in a way that people understand," said Cody Fritz, who leads the hurricane center's storm surge unit and conducted the modeling for NPR, reported NPR. "Realistically, you can zoom down to where the water might be. We're not that good that we can [locate your] mailbox, but you have a pretty good idea of what risk you might have to deal with."
Fritz added the latest sea level rise projections for the coming years from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate worsening storm surge. According to an NPR analysis using 2020 Census data, the number of people at risk could nearly double by 2080 based on NOAA's likely sea level rise projection of a little over 2.5 feet.
Additionally, the National Hurricane Center's model predicts that the extent of storm surge will grow dramatically across New York's five boroughs. The NPR analysis suggests that the number of New Yorkers threatened by flooding could more than double from about 207,000 in 2020 to 468,000 in 2080.
The Hurricane Center's storm surge models and NPR's analysis of 2020 Census data suggest just 2,100 Washingtonians are likely to be threatened by an Isabel-like storm in 2080 due to sea level rise, compared to the 600 people in 2020 impacted.