First Tropical Depression of Atlantic Hurricane Season May Become Tropical Depression
The Atlantic hurricane season’s first tropical depression could potentially be the season's first tropical storm, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
This storm could form in a few days and is expected to hit the Florida Peninsula with torrential rain this week and then the northern Bahamas over the weekend. AccuWeather meteorologists add that wind shear will likely decrease in the path of the storm.
According to AccuWeather meteorologists, the potential tropical storm would be named Alex once it hits the 39-mph maximum sustained winds threshold for a tropical storm. The system is expected to become a tropical storm once it crosses over Florida or after it emerges over the Atlantic.
Hurricane Agatha, which moved inland over Mexico, left two areas of circulation, of which the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea emerged, reported AccuWeather.
The northwest Caribbean feature is designated by the National Hurricane Center as Invest 91L and will be tracked as a tropical rainstorm. Once the system comes together, it may increase in strength to a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm reported AccuWeather.
AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that the tropical rainstorm will become a tropical depression over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on June 3, before reaching the Florida Keys and southern part of the Florida Peninsula on June 3rd and 4th, reported AccuWeather.
"That decrease in wind shear will be assisted by a zone of rising air that circulates around the globe over several weeks," said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno, reported AccuWeather. "This patch of rising air is known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and will tend to cause wind shear to drop off around the northwestern Caribbean and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and that should allow the system to organize and gain strength."
Once the storm moves northeast, flooding rain are expected to hit western portions of Cuba and south Florida, where 4-8 inches of rainfall are anticipated across western Cuba.
AccuWeather meteorologists are rating this storm less than 1 for Cuba and the U.S., according to the AccuWeather RealImpact's Scale for hurricanes.
According to the meteorologists, the heaviest rain will occur in south Florida from June 3rd and 4th.
If the system does not become a tropical storm, it will still hit Florida with downpours and thunderstorms from June 3rd and 4th. Urban flooding, building seas and surf are also expected will occur around southern and central parts of the Florida Peninsula and the northern Bahamas.
"There is also the potential for a few tornadoes and waterspouts as the system crosses the Florida Peninsula or passes just to the south of Florida," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, reported AccuWeather.
"There is a chance the storm could be drawn farther to the northwest by the approach of a dip in the jet stream over the Midwest later next week," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, reported AccuWeather. "This action, short of a second landfall in the U.S., could spread rough surf and beach erosion farther to the north in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions."
