NOAA Updates Hurricane Outlook, Predicts More Storms in 2021
According to NOAA’s updated Hurricane Outlook, there is a 65% chance of an above-average season, with a 70% probability of 15–21 named storms.
Of these storms, NOAA is predicting that 7–10 will be hurricanes and 3–5 will be major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength. The updated forecast includes the storms that have already developed, including Elsa.
The forecast is based on conditions observed in the North Atlantic Ocean basin, including: sea surface temperatures; upper-level winds; rainfall in West Africa; and the potential development of another La Niña event in the tropical Pacific and more.
“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo in the NOAA news release. “The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.”
According to NOAA, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently in the neutral phase, and there is a possibility of the return of La Nina later in the hurricane season.
“Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator in the news release. “The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season.”
The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30.
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